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Illuminating fun, faith,
family and foolishness.

“Peace, prosperity, liberty and morals
have an intimate connection.”

- Thomas Jefferson

Monday, June 15, 2009

Breaking news
The big news for us is that Faith and Ben finally got back from their honeymoon yesterday. Of course, there are other things going on in the headlines, but it's hard not to see everything in terms of the kids being back. For example, I'm so happy I'm thinking about turning over some police cars and setting small trees on fire. Nothing shows the world how happy you are like wanton property damage and abuse of authority, I guess. To follow the lead of the Laker fans I suppose we should have rampaged through our neighborhood immediately after the wedding three weeks ago, but I was just too tired.

With a couple fewer mouths to feed the last couple of weeks we've had quite a few leftovers piling up in the refrigerator. This, of course, is just another way Americans are killing the planet with our wastrel ways through excess food accumulating in landfills and producing methane gas that's 20 TIMES WORSE THAN CARBON DIOXIDE! I thought the problem for years has been Americans eat too much, leading to an obesity epidemic, now we're criticized for not cleaning our plates? Oh, if only we didn't live in a functioning economy (for the moment) with an effective infrastructure that efficiently and cost-effectively delivers food to us on a daily basis! Don't worry, I'm sure that within a few years the government will take care of this oversight while also mandating how much and what kinds of food we can buy. I mean, once the goverment takes over health care and we still die too expensively it's only logical they regulate consumption for our own good. Or maybe they'll just let the natural results of their policies run their course: whatever flaws the Soviet Union had, they certainly were never known for letting their wasted food pile up into methane-producing heaps.

Anyway, now that Ben's back there is sure to be fewer left-overs, and the cattle industry can breathe a sigh of relief after demand took a brief dip in June. To be honest, though, I don't know how much our household is actually contributing to the food piles in the landfill. I don't recall ever throwing out any pizza or half a bag of Fritos. Our policy is simply that we will never throw good food away. We merely wrap it and put it in the refrigerator until it becomes bad food, and then we throw it away.

As for the riots in Iran, I guess they're just upset that Faith and Ben decided not to visit there as part of their world-wide, whirlwind honeymmoon tour.


Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Postcards from Spain Socialism

Along with planning for our trip I'm also trying to get up to speed on the news and politics in Spain before we go over there. The New York Times maintains an on-line news page on the country that is a handy reference. Allow me to excerpt three of the top stories for your consideration; I've bold-faced some words for emphasis, but this post is just snapshots, not analyses. I don't have the time or the historical context to attempt an analyses at this point, but I do have enough intellect and curiosity to file these under, "Things that make you go, 'Hmmmm.'"

The first article summarizes the March, 2008 electoral victory of the Socialist Party and PM José Luis Zapatero, which was first elected in 2004:
Spain’s governing Socialists triumphed in elections held in March 2008, giving Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero a fresh mandate to pursue his agenda of sweeping social, cultural and political liberalization.

Despite a bitterly fought campaign, the outcome seemed to endorse some of Mr. Zapatero’s boldest decisions, including the withdrawal of Spain’s troops from Iraq, the granting of more autonomy to Spain’s rebellious regions, simplified divorce and the legalization of homosexual marriage.


Among the bold decisions includes a head-on conflict with the Catholic Church on abortion.

Spain Steps Into Battle With Itself on Abortion
By VICTORIA BURNETT
MADRID — One day last month, Sister María Victoria Vindel gave her 15-year-old students a shockingly graphic lecture on reproductive health: PowerPoint slides of dismembered and disfigured fetuses interspersed with biblical quotations and pictures of a grinning José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s prime minister.

“They laugh while many innocent children will die,” one of the captions read. The presentation ended with the message, “No to abortion, yes to life!”

Sister Vindel’s class at Purísima Concepción y Santa María Micaela, a parochial school in Logroño in northern Spain, is the most controversial episode yet in an increasingly contentious debate about Mr. Zapatero’s plans to ease Spain’s restrictive abortion law.

The class was described by the mother of a student, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of possible repercussions for her child, and by Inmaculada Ortega, a Socialist lawmaker who spoke to several students and their parents.

The school, where Sister Vindel is headmistress, refused to comment on the slide show, which appeared to be downloaded from the Internet. The regional government, run by the opposition Popular Party, sent inspectors to the school, a Catholic institution that is financed partly by the state and partly by the parents. The government called the presentation “inappropriate” and said that it could constitute “moral aggression.”

Since he became prime minister in 2004, Mr. Zapatero has pushed an ambitious series of reforms, prying the social fabric of Spain from the centuries-old grip of the Roman Catholic Church. The Socialist government has legalized gay marriage, eased divorce law and expanded the rights of transsexuals.


I'm not up on my history of the Catholic Church's prior relationship with the Socialists or Zapatero, but in Central and South America the Church has been known to support and endorse Socialist uprisings and candidates. I wonder if it has been happy with the resulting social conditions? Something to look into.

Leaving aside the spiritual, it appears that Zapatero may also have some issues with the temporal:

Spain’s Falling Prices Fuel Deflation Fears in Europe
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

VALENCIA, Spain — Faced with plunging orders, merchants across this recession-wracked country are starting to do something that many of them have never done: cut retail prices.

Prices dipped everywhere, from restaurants and fashion retailers to pharmacies and supermarkets in March. Hoping to increase sales, Fernando Maestre reduced prices by a third on the video intercoms his company makes for homes and apartment buildings. But that has not helped, so, along with many other Spanish employers, he is continuing to fire workers.

The nation’s jobless rate, already a painful 15.5 percent, could soon reach 20 percent, a troubling number for a major industrialized country. (Ya think? Later on the article also includes this stat: The jobless rate for those under 25 is at a Depression-like level of 31.8 percent, the highest among the 27 nations of the European Union. NW)

With the combination of rising unemployment and falling prices, economists fear Spain may be in the early grip of deflation, a hallmark of both the Great Depression and Japan’s lost decade of the 1990s, and a major concern since the financial crisis went global last year.

Deflation can result in a downward spiral that can be difficult to reverse. As unemployment rises sharply and consumers cut spending, companies cut prices. But if sales do not pick up, then revenue can decline further, forcing more cuts in workers or wages. Mr. Maestre is already contemplating additional job and wage cuts for his 250 employees.

Nowhere is this cycle more evident than in Spain. Last month, it became the first of the 16 nations that use the euro to record a negative inflation rate. The drop, though just 0.1 percent, had not happened since the government began tracking inflation in 1961, and Spanish officials have said prices could keep dropping through the summer.

Some of the decline came as volatile food prices sank; the cost of fish fell 6.2 percent, and sugar was down 5.7 percent. But even prices in normally stable sectors like drugs and medical treatments fell 0.7 percent in March, and there were slight declines in footwear, clothing and prices for household electronics.

“Alarm bells are going off,” said Lorenzo Amor, president of the Association of Autonomous Workers, which represents small businesses and self-employed people. “Economies can recover from deceleration, but it’s harder to recover from a deflationary situation. This could be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy.”

I'm sure we'll try our best to stimulate that economy!

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Pandemic-like symptoms?

Greg Marmalard: Remain calm! All is well!
D-Day: Ramming speed!


Flu pandemics have become kind of a hobby of mine, not out of morbid interest but because I work in an industry that has to anticipate and model the potential impact of such things and also because I'm part of the team at work responsible for coordinating and communicating responses to a campus-wide disruptions such as fire, earthquake, tornados ... or large numbers of employees unable to come to work. As such we get information from groups such as the World Health Organization and from Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a company that does catastrophic risk modeling.

The information that I am receiving from these very credible sources suggests, coupled with what I know of the avian-flu scare, that there is some reason to be concerned but no reason to lose perspective. I'll share the bad news and good news here, along with a hat-tip to a previous Presidential administration likely to go unmentioned in the media accounts.




Update:

The WHO has raised the Pandemic Alert to Phase 5 (evidence of of significant human-to-human transmission). Phase 6 is the highest alert and describes a pandemic situation (featuring "efficient and sustained widespread human-to-human transmission).

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Dumbest idea ever
Somebody had the brilliant idea to create a game app for the iPhone where the objective is to shake a baby to death, and then Apple thought it was a good idea to approve and market it.

What next, a baby-seal clubbing app? Columbine as a first-person-shooter? Concentration Camp Jenga?


FAIL


It's amazing how quickly a bad idea can get disseminated via today's technology — and how quickly the smack-down can take place (interesting details of what happened here and here).

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Have guns that travel - but how many, really?

The Obama Administration has been saying over and over that 90 percent of the guns recovered from criminals in Mexico come from the U.S. Fox News has reported the actual total is 17 percent. According to an updated FactCheck.org report, however, they are both wrong by a significant margin.

Both numbers seemed rather far-fetched to me when I first heard them, but the FactCheck report looks like it has a pretty good handle on the facts and methodologies of what is a bit of a convoluted process to calculate. (FactCheck itself admits getting an incorrect answer its first time through). Here's the skinny:

President Obama and Mexican president Calderon both said 90 percent of the guns recovered by Mexican authorities come from the U.S. SoS Hillary Clinton, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill), Diane Feinstein (D-CA) repeated the figure (using the same teleprompter, perhaps?) and they've been faithfully echoed by the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, The Christian Science Monitor and NBC who can't afford calculators due to budget cuts. Their error — deliberate or inadvertent — is to leave out a few important words. What they should be saying is that 90 percent of guns recovered that the Mexican government submits for tracing can be traced back to the U.S. As Fox and others noted, Mexico only submits a percentage of the guns it recovers for tracing, mainly because most of the guns are untraceable. As FactCheck notes:
...Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora put the number of recovered crime weapons in the country over the past two years at nearly 29,000, according to USA Today. And figures given by ATF make clear that the agency doesn't trace nearly all of those.

According to ATF, Mexico submitted 7,743 firearms for tracing in fiscal year 2008 (which ended Oct. 1) and 3,312 guns in fiscal 2007. That adds up to a fraction of the two-year total given by Mexico's attorney general. He may be referring to a slightly different 24-month period, but that can't account for more than a part of the discrepancy. The number is growing, and already this year, Mexico has submitted more than 7,500 guns for tracing, according to ATF. But even if all those guns are added in, the total submitted for tracing since the start of fiscal 2007 doesn't come close to the 29,000 figure that Mexico says it has recovered.
While the Administration stumbles over words, Fox — deliberately or inadvertently — used the wrong number (based on confusing ATF testimony) to do its math. Fox said only 5,114 of the 29,000 recovered guns came through the U.S. Back to FactCheck:
The 5,114 figure is simply wrong. What Newell said quite clearly is that the number of guns submitted to ATF in those two years was 11,055: "3,312 in FY 2007 [and] 7,743 in FY 2008." Newell also testified, as other ATF officials have done, that 90 percent of the guns traced were determined to have come from the U.S. So based on Newell's testimony, the Fox reporters should have used a figure of 9,950 guns from U.S. sources. That figures out to just over 34 percent of guns recovered, assuming that the 29,000 figure supplied by Mexico's attorney general is correct.

Even that number is too low. At our request, an ATF spokesman gave us more detailed figures for how many guns had been submitted and traced during those two years. Of the guns seized in Mexico and given to ATF for tracing, the agency actually found 95 percent came from U.S. sources in fiscal 2007 and 93 percent in fiscal 2008. That comes to a total of 10,347 guns from U.S. sources for those two years, or 36 percent of what Mexican authorities say they recovered.
Ok, 34-36 percent isn't exactly a small number (unless you compare it to 90 percent). As other bloggers have noted, most of the guns used in Mexico are fully-automatic weapons which are not readily available in the U.S. but can be purchased, stolen or donated by other entities throughout Central and South America. Not that a shade-tree armorer couldn't convert a U.S. semi-automatic AR-15 to automatic, but the drug gangs and cartels do have other options.

While it would be very nice if these guns didn't cross the border (and kept prices down domestically) and some might say even 34 percent is horrific when innocent by-standers are being killed, the purchases are being made by criminals to use on other criminals. The Administration's 90 percent chorus, however, seems like part of a plan to further complicate (if not outlaw) legal gun transactions for law-abiding citizens in the U.S.

Now that the numbers have been brought together and the math is out there it will be interesting to see if the Administration and Fox (and others) continue to use their incorrect numbers going forward, or if any other media will bother to do the math as part of the responsibility of a free press. Whatever numbers you see being used next will tell you a lot about the person or organization using them.





Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Return of the pirate (post)

The adventures of pirates have been much in the news in recent months, and it has nothing to do with Johnny Depp or box-office hits. Whether it's hijacking of a ship loaded with Russian tanks, to the latest misadventure with an American-flagged cargo ship, pirates are becoming good copy. One might be tempted to think this is a relatively new threat but in fact it is one that has never really gone away, as I pointed out in a post back in November of 2005. It's relevant to our current overnight sensation news stories, so I'm re-running it now. All of the links below are still current. The StarTribune article referenced in the first graf is no longer available, however.

Yo-ho and avast, there still be pirates — and why you might care

I saw an article today in the StarTribune, Miami-based Cruise Ship Attacked by Pirates off Somalia, and it reminded me of a book I read last year by John S. Burnett entitled Dangerous Waters.

It's an excellent and eye-opening read about a subject most people think has become quaint: high seas piracy. Burnett was motivated to research and write the book after his own small boat was boarded and robbed. While you won't find much in the way of masted ships flying the Jolly Roger looking for easy pickings today, the reality is that the basics of piracy in the 17th century and today are still in place: slow-moving, lightly-guarded ships loaded with valuable cargo in international waters with little controlling authority — and a large, international pool of people greedy enough, or desperate enough, that have access to fast boats and weaponry and little fear of being caught. In fact, about all that's changed is the technology. Galleons have been replaced by high-speed boats; cannons replaced with rocket-propelled grenades; cutlasses with Uzis.

While this (literally) cut-throat business has never really gone away, even in the age of high-tech navies, it is mostly invisible because it doesn't affect our lives in many noticeable ways. As Burnett points out, however, piracy today can easily lead to a serious and confounding global problem.

One of the most pirate-infested areas today is the Malacca Straits. While the location might not be as colorful-sounding as, say, the Caribbean and you might be a little vague on the geography, the Malacca Straits are a very important little body of water. They link the Indian and Pacific Oceans and are the shortest sea route between India, China and Indonesia. They are filled with shallow reefs and tiny islands and there are only narrow channels available for the nearly 1000 ships - mostly cargo ships and oil tankers - that pass through each day like slow, fat fish in a barrel. Heavy traffic in narrow confines makes for relatively easy pickings for pirates in "smash and grab" types of raids (board, loot any crew and passengers, take electronics and other valuables from the bridge and beat it to a nearby hideout or fishing village). Sometimes, however, this results in tanker or cargo crews being tied up and their ships left to plow on out of control through a highly congested area. It doesn't take much imagination to think of the effects that a grounding or sinking of a tanker in this area could have on this vital commercial thoroughfare. Here's some of what the above link about the straits has to say:
The narrowest point of this shipping lane is the Phillips Channel in the Singapore Strait, which is only 1.5 miles wide at its narrowest point. This creates a natural bottleneck, with the potential for a collision, grounding, or oil spill (in addition, piracy has historically been a regular occurrence in the Singapore Strait, but over the past 15 years has grown alarmingly). Some 400 shipping lines and 700 ports worldwide rely on the Malacca and Singapore straits to get to the Singapore port. For example, 80% of Japan's oil comes from the Middle East via the Malacca Straits. To skip the straits would force a ship to travel an extra 994 miles from the Gulf. All excess capacity of the world fleet might be absorbed, with the effect strongest for crude oil shipments and dry bulk such as coal. Closure of the Strait of Malacca would immediately raise freight rates worldwide. With Chinese oil imports from the Middle East increasing steadily, the Strait of Malacca is likely to grow in strategic importance in coming years.
Whether through criminal accident or premeditated terrorism (elements of Abu Sayaff and Al Quaida are active in this area), it may be just a matter of time before such an incident fills headlines around the world.

It's not an unknown threat to people who's business it is to be concerned with these things, Burnett's book and others (see below) does a good job of describing the efforts cargo and passenger lines, governments and military forces are making to mitigate the problem while also describing the bureaucratic, political and logistical hurdles they face.

All in all, today's news story (selected by the Strib perhaps because it was so unusual sounding) highlights an issue we often overlook. If you're intrigued by this information, Dangerous Waters is a sobering but very interesting read. You might also find the following related books suggested by Amazon of interest:

Jolly Roger With an Uzi: The Rise and Threat of Modern Piracy by Jack A. Gottschalk

Pirates Aboard!: Forty Cases of Piracy Today and What Bluewater Cruisers Can Do About It by Klaus Hympendahl

Maritime Terror: Protecting Your Vessel and Your Crew Against Piracy by Jim Gray

Monday, April 13, 2009

Tickle Me Ammo? Bullets scarce as demand shoots up

Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition as it appears the only way to get bullets now and for the forseeable future is by divine intervention. I won't get into what caliber gun Jesus would use (though He did say, "Blessed are the Peacemakers," which, coincidentally, use the same bullets that I'm trying to find) but right now there is a national supply and demand issue on a scale of trying to feed the multitude with a few loaves and fishes — and the baguettes are on backorder.

Anyone who has tried to purchase handgun ammunition recently has found the shelves bare and on-line retailers embarrassed. This isn't a case of direct government or retailer-induced artificial scarcity that typically drives most commercial shortages, though the perceived threat of government involvement appears to be a significant factor in consumer reaction, as the Utah Standard-Examinerreports:
Ammo in short supply; Dem takeover gets blame
OGDEN -- With firearm dealers struggling to keep ammunition on their shelves, it seems the gun and ammunition business has been stimulated in a way few people expected.

The minute Barack Obama stepped into the White House, people scrambled to gun stores to buy as much ammunition as they could get their hands on. Now, there's a shortage of ammunition all over the country as demand is three times the supply.

"It's been a huge topic since the election," said Mike Casey, vice president of Smith & Edwards in Farr West.

"Ammunition is hard to come by, and the demand isn't getting smaller. Even with production increases, it is extremely difficult to get ammo."

Casey has been out of several calibers of ammunition for more than six weeks now, with no expected date of delivery.
The run on ammo is one effect of an increase in gun sales, or would-be gun sales:
From Jan. 1 through the end of March, 63,348 people in Utah have gotten the background check necessary for obtaining a firearm, according to data on an FBI Web site.

In the past 10 years, the state has averaged 90,000 people a year getting those background checks. If this year continues at the same rate as its first three months, Utah would have nearly met its yearly average of background checks by the end of April.
New gun owners naturally need bullets, and existing gun owners don't want to be caught short. As a result (emphasis mine),
One manufacturer, Winchester, has back orders for 200 million rounds of .45-caliber bullets.

The company's machines produce 1.6 million rounds a day, which puts them more than 120 days behind.
It's hard to imagine there's a need for 200 million rounds of .45 caliber in the general public. Shoot, I'd be happy if I could get another 50 or 100 rounds before my CCW proficiency test, but I'm told repeatedly that September or October is the earliest to expect re-supply. And I can just about forget about loading my own as well.
And it's getting tougher to make your own bullets, too. Reloading supplies sell out nearly as fast as they hit stores, Spencer said.

Recently, Kent Shooters Supply received a shipment of 80 pounds of gunpowder. That amount, typically a six-month supply for the store, was sold in three days.

"It's crazy. The guy in the past who bought a pound of powder is now buying all I have on the counter," Spencer said.
The situation is nationwide, not just in Utah as other recent stories from Milwaukee, Kansas, Virginia, Texas, Arkansas and California show.

Another source I visited reported that the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) shows that background checks on the sale of firearms jumped 23.3 percent in February when compared to February 2008. The increase follows a 29 percent rise in January, a 24 percent rise in December and a 42 percent jump in November, when a record 1,529,635 background checks were performed. I checked the NICS site myself to verify this, but couldn't find that data despite checking several categories and trying different word searches. However, I did eventually come across this article which verified the November and December numbers. Perhaps someone wiser in the ways of dealing with government opacity can find the relevant data for the first quarter of this year.

Judging by this type of activity it only seems natural to suggest that if President Obama and Congress want to save the U.S. auto industry all they have to do is threaten to ban SUVs.


Monday, April 6, 2009

Aren't you dead yet?
I first saw this article and threw it into my drafts folder about a month ago and forgot about it. A little spring cleaning, however, brings you this snippet from the Llama Butchers:

Senator Warner wants to start a "discussion" about end-of-life issues
From The Virginian Pilot. Make no mistake about where this is headed: first it will be just ensuring that everyone has "information," next it will be voluntary "guidelines," and then the "guidelines" will no longer be voluntary. Translation: your friendly federal government wants to decide when to pull the plug--because it knows best

Here's the article in question:

Sen. Warner calls for discussion of end-of-life treatment
By Dale Eisman
The Virginian-Pilot
© March 6, 2009
WASHINGTON

Two months into his term, U.S. Sen. Mark Warner has marched into the policy thicket that is health-care reform, urging a national discussion on the touchy question of how best to treat terminally ill people.

In a speech to hospital executives this week, Warner called for intensified efforts to educate individuals and families in advance about end-of-life care. With better information, many people would forgo expensive and almost-always-futile treatment for patients near death, he said.

Such measures account for more than one-fourth of Medicare payments and 10 to 12 percent of all health costs, studies suggest.

"We leave it to families to resolve these extraordinarily difficult decisions with little guidance," Warner said. "Other industrialized nations have dealt with the end-of-life issue. It's time we did as well."

I've written here several times about just how other countries deal with end-of-life issues — and how nationalized medicine essentially leads to rationing of healthcare because of the high costs. Typically the very young and the very old are most at risk of being deemed a drain on the country if the costs of their care get too high — and then the Nanny State turns into the Bully State.

21st Century British Healthcare (Terminally Ill Can Be Starved to Death, UK Court Rules) (featuring an assist from Monty Python)

Charlotte's Web: When the State Decides if Your Baby Shall Live or Die

An update on Charlotte Wyatt ... and the state of socialized medicine

Scottish seniors aren't dead yet: the rising cost of "free" healthcare

I think I'll go for a walk.








Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Learn the lessons

Update:

The real issue here isn't what the parents believe, it is whether they or the State have the right and the responsibility to determine the best education for their children. This is fundamental, whether the State is totalitarian, benevolent or a right-wing theocracy. How would people react if their children were required by law to go to the latter? Will some parents fail spectacularly at this? Of course. And so do many schools. Yet the principles of liberty and freedom must be vigorously and vigilantly defended at every point, especially within the family.

We are better served by honoring and defending the rights of the individual than we are promoting the authority of the State. I learned that in school, once, a long time ago.


On the heels of an article in the St. Paul paper this week about the surge in homeschooling in the U.S., I read an article today about a German family seeking political asylum in Tennessee so that they can homeschool their children.

MORRISTOWN, Tenn. — Homeschooling is so important to Uwe Romeike that the classically trained pianist sold his beloved grand pianos to pay for moving his wife and five children from Germany to the Smoky Mountain foothills of Tennessee.

Romeike, his wife, Hannelore, and their children live in a modest duplex about 40 miles northeast of Knoxville while they seek political asylum here. They say they were persecuted for their evangelical Christian beliefs and homeschooling their children in Germany, where state school attendance is compulsory.

When the Romeikes wouldn't comply with repeated orders to send the children to school, police came to their home one October morning in 2006 and took the children, crying and upset, to school.

"We tried not to open the door, but they (police) kept ringing the doorbell for 15 or 20 minutes," Romeike said. "They called us by phone and spoke on the answering machine and said they would knock open the door if we didn't open it. So I opened it."

The Romeike's case may sound extreme, but the fact is Germany is adamantly anti-home education, as I've reported in this blog on a couple of occasions. The first time was in November of 2006 in a post entitled Ve haf vays...

Stones Cry Out excerpted a story last week about German police forcibly delivering home-schooled children to the local state schools.

A Nazi-era law requiring all children to attend public school, to avoid "the emergence of parallel societies based on separate philosophical convictions" that could be taught by parents at home, apparently is triggering a Nazi-like response from police.

The word comes from Netzwerk Bildungsfreiheit, or Network for Freedom in Education, which confirmed that children in a family in Bissingen, in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, have been forcibly hauled to a public school.

"On Friday 20 October 2006 at around 7:30 a.m. the children of a home educating family ... were brought under duress to school by police," the organization, which describes itself as politically and religiously neutral, confirmed.

A separate weblog in the United States noted the same tragedy.

Homeschoolblogger.com noted that the "three children were picked up by the police and escorted to school in Baden-Wurttemberg, with the 'promise' that it would happen again this week."

The Network for Freedom in Education, through spokesman Joerg Grosseluemern, said the Remeike family has been "home educating their children since the start of the school year, something which is legal in practically the whole of the (European Union)."

It kind of makes you wonder about a government that's afraid of what parents might teach their children...or that believes it is the rightful parent of the nation. Perhaps they've read their William Ross Wallace and know that "the hand that rocks the cradle is the hand that rules the world," and they find that discomforting. I'm also amazed that this "Nazi-era" law is still on the books in Germany; it is all für der Kinder, no doubt.

This all reminds me of how the roots of the U.S. education system go deep into the Prussian model of the early 20th century (believe me, we got more than just "kindergarten" from this influence). I had started digging into this topic for a post a long time ago and got sidetracked; it might be time to resurrect this effort. For now, at least, we can appreciate that our money is the only thing the state forcibly takes from our homes and sends to public school.

Like the Pilgrims before them, the Romeikes came to America seeking religious freedom (not freedom from religion) and to live their lives free of government interference. Good thing for them they came to Tennessee, though, and not California where the education unions and courts march in goose-step together, as I wrote about here last March...

More compelling was one judge's written opinion:
"California courts have held that ... parents do not have a constitutional right to home-school their children," Justice H. Walter Croskey said in the 3-0 ruling issued on Feb. 28. "Parents have a legal duty to see to their children's schooling under the provisions of these laws."

Parents can be criminally prosecuted for failing to comply, Croskey said.

The ruling sent shock waves throughout the estimated 166,000 home-educators in California as well as through the California legislature and even Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who said, "Every California child deserves a quality education, and parents should have the right to decide what's best for their children. Parents should not be penalized for acting in the best interests of their children's education. This outrageous ruling must be overturned by the courts, and, if the courts don't protect parents' rights, then, as elected officials, we will." Interestingly enough, Schwarzenegger's signing of SB777 last year may be one of the things that have led many parents to abandon the public schools. Give the Governator credit though; he may not be great at logic but he definitely knows how to count votes and probably realizes that whatever other political beliefs a homeschooling family may have, telling them that they have no right to educate their own children trumps them all.

Personally, I'm not shocked. California has long been the most overtly hostile state toward home-educators (ironically it's own school system struggles to place a certified teacher in every classroom, yet would seek to mandate it in every home-school). Similarly, Education Minnesota has no love lost for home-educators and my hunch is that they wouldn't mind if their pet DFL pupils in the Minnesota legislature were to bring them a similar bill as if it were a bright, shiny apple.

Of course, it takes a real socialist mentality to proclaim that the State is the rightful owner of your children, as I've documented before regarding events in England and Germany. The Germans, in fact, are still embracing the 1937 law instituted by a certain mustachioed megalomaniac that mandates compulsory state school educations. Seventy years later they're still enforcing it by forcibly taking kids from their homes to school in police cars or even removing children from their parents' homes and hiding them in psychiatric hospitals for evaluation.

Maybe the Germans have this thing about control, but surely a liberal democracy and member of the European Union would have respect for things like rights and constitutions, right? After all, the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union declares that "the State shall respect the right of parents to ensure education and teaching is in conformity with their own religious and philosophical convictions". Yet according to the entry in Wikipedia where I got that quote:

Homeschooling in Germany is illegal with rare exceptions. The requirement to attend school has been upheld, on challenge from parents, by the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany. Parents violating the law have most prominently included devout Christians who want to give their children a more Christian education than what is offered by the schools. Penalties against these parents have included fines (around €5,000), successful legal actions to take away the parents' custody of their children, and jail time for the parents.[1]

In a landmark legal case commenced in 2003 at the European Court of Human Rights a homeschooling parent couple argued on behalf of their children that Germany's compulsory school attendance endangered their children’s religious upbringing, promoted teaching inconsistent with their Christian faith — especially the German State's mandates relating to sex education in the schools — and contravened the declaration in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union that "the State shall respect the right of parents to ensure education and teaching is in conformity with their own religious and philosophical convictions". In September 2006 the European Court of Human Rights upheld the German ban on homeschooling, stating "parents may not refuse ...[compulsory schooling] on the basis of their convictions", and adding that the right to education "calls for regulation by the State". The European Court took the position that the plaintiffs were the children, not their parents, and declared "children are unable to foresee the consequences of their parents' decision for home education because of their young age.... Schools represent society, and it is in the children’s interest to become part of that society. The parents' right to educate does not go as far as to deprive their children of that experience." The European Court endorsed a "carefully reasoned" decision of the German court concerning "the general interest of society to avoid the emergence of parallel societies based on separate philosophical convictions and the importance of integrating minorities into society."

Good luck to the Romeikes. I know from first-hand experience that the U.S. immigration and asylum courts can be very difficult. My hope for the family, and for the U.S., is that we all will enjoy prolonged freedom. Freedom requires vigilance and conviction, even to the point of risking conviction, and I hope the examples of Germany and — closer to home — California, are educational.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Inheritance taxes
A few years ago when home values were soaring my wife and I refinanced our house, taking out some equity to remodel part of our main floor while locking in a sub-5% fixed rate, 15-year mortgage (we hate paying interest). This was back in the day when you could finance 125 percent of your equity. The amount we needed was substantially less than this, and our loan officer kept trying to interest us in borrowing more. My wife wasn't having any of it (I think this might have been the same loan officer who gushed that our credit score "walks on water"). Frankly, it kind of creeped us out to think about taking on all this extra debt simply because we could, especially for intangibles such as travel or ephermerals that depreciate quickly, such as new cars (both of which were examples of things the loan officer suggested we could spend the extra cash on). Fortunately for us, our instincts were correct.

I think most people have an built-in sense, or skepticism, for those "too good to be true" deals, even if we eventually decide that the deal is "too good to pass up." Then, like the prize trout being reeled in we say, "I knew there was a catch!" It's hard to resist, though, when the rest of the school is jumping in the boat on their own. Most of us have the scars on our lips to show for it.

I think that's why so many people are feeling more than a little queasy about the direction of the economy and the proposed borrowing our way to prosperity budget offered by President Obama. How does it make sense that, if we're in a crisis caused by unchecked borrowing, even more borrowing will get us out? And who are we borrowing from, and what's the vig? Having learned a few things the hard way we tend to push back a little when the salesman says "you've got act by midnight tonight!" At the same time we really want to believe that things aren't really so bad, and it will all work out in the long-run, because to believe otherwise calls into questions all those nice little assumptions that allow us to sleep at night. So when the salesman try to allay our concerns with testimonials "Four out of five socialists prefer..." or say that this the "new and improved deficit, now with less rich people" we kind of say, "What the heck, and, you know, I think my next diet will be the one that works, too!"

"Besides," the salesman says, "It's really not my deficit...I inherited it!" So then we think, "Well, yeah, we've always had deficits, Winston, so what's a little more?" If the Bush administration left us with the equivlent of a budget hangover, perhas a little hair of the dog makes sense. A picture, as they say, is worth a thousand words — and likely a few trillion dollars as well.

As the Washington Post illustrated the other day:


SOURCE: CBO, White House Office of Management and Budget | The Washington Post - March 21, 2009


That's not the Republicans providing that chart, or The Center for the American Experiment, or even Joe the Plumber; it's the Washington Post, using numbers from both the President's office and the ostensibly non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. As sickening as the Bush fiscal record is (and yes, the numbers above do include money spent on Iraq and Afganistan), the current administration plans to take a case of the flu and turn it into Ebola.

As the Heritage Foundation's Brian Riedl points out:


Perhaps someone can graph this for me: now that it's been established that when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold, how long before the UN decides that our economy is too important to be left in the hands of Americans and requires global oversight?

HT: Bogus Gold.

Monday, March 23, 2009

More taxes on the "lucky"

Are you one of the "95 percent" of Americans promised a tax-cut by President Obama? By all means, keep your fingers crossed and "hope" you get a little taste before pending "changes" in other tax laws and regulations swipe it right back out of your pocket.

A couple of weeks ago I highlighted a move by Congressional Democrats to tax your employer-sponsored health benefits. Today I have a couple more stories that suggest more back-door tax increases on your insurance are in the works.

One of the major features of life insurance and annuities has long been the ability to "build-up" cash values tax-free inside certain types of life polices and within annuities, with income taxes being taken when the funds were withdrawn, presumably in retirement when your income tax bracket is (hopefully) lower. It's a similar mechanism to how a 401k works. Additionally, life insurance death benefits paid to your survivors have also been tax-free. All these tax deferrals act as incentives for consumers to take individual responsibility in planning for retirement and the financial security of one's family.

This is not an strategy reserved only for the wealthy; cash value life insurance policies and annuities are mainstays of middle-class financial planning, while the more affordable term life plans (with no cash build-up) provide an important and accessible safety net for families with common sense but modest means. There are those, however, who love raising taxes every bit as much as they hate the thought of the individual doing anything for himself when the government could be doing it less efficiently. An example on the radar screen is out west where the Oregon State Revenue Committee is claiming that exempting these private funds imposes too much of a burden on the state which currently can't get its hands on that money:

The federal government exempts life and annuity benefits from taxation, but Rep. Chuck Riley, D-Hillsboro, Ore., the sponsor of the Oregon bill, H.B. 2854, has argued that conformity with federal income tax rules is too costly, and that Oregon should tax some kinds of income now excluded from federal taxable income.

If passed as written, the bill would take effect on or after Jan. 1, 2010.

H.B. 2854 was first read March 2. To pass, the bill would need approval by a three-fifths majority.

The National Association for Life Brokerage Agencies, Fairfax, Va., has put out a statement opposing the bill, noting it would tax both the death benefits and earnings on the inside build-up of life insurance and annuities.

This “unfairly targets individuals and families who have taken responsibility for their financial future by preparing for retirement and planning for unforeseen circumstances,” NAILBA says in the statement. “Any changes to the tax system must not limit or disadvantage protection and security products, but rather strengthen them.”

It should be pointed out that "conforming" with the federal regulations doesn't "cost" Oregon anything; it merely keeps money away from them, which really galls those inclined to think that your money (and children) belong to the State. It is also part and parcel of the mindset that, as with the earlier health insurance article, portrays having life insurance as a lucky break and unfair advantage and therefore worthy of confiscation and redistribution. While this particular article refers to Oregon only, if it passes it's not much of a stretch to see other states trying the same thing.

On a related note, there is a recurring movement afoot in the federal government to repeal the McCarran-Ferguson Act which provides a limited anti-trust exemption to the insurance industry. This arises periodically, but now they are using the AIG imbroglio to justify this latest grab (though the connection is tenuous):

Two House Democrats have introduced a bill that would repeal the McCarran-Ferguson Act insurance industry antitrust exemption.

The bill, H.R. 1583, the Insurance Industry Competition Act, would give the U.S. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission the authority to apply antitrust laws to anticompetitive behavior by insurance companies.

The bill would keep the McCarran-Ferguson provision that puts jurisdiction over insurance regulation in the hands of the states.

The bill was introduced by Reps. Gene Taylor, D-Miss., and Peter DeFazio D-Ore.

Taylor and DeFazio have introduced similar bills in earlier Congresses. They say the controversy over bonuses paid to American International Group Inc., New York, employees highlights the need for action on the antitrust issue.

The current insurance industry antitrust exemption gave AIG a free pass to become “too big to fail,” and “now the U.S taxpayers are on the hook to bail them out or risk even further turmoil in an already fragile economy,” Taylor and DeFazio say in a statement. “This legislation would close that exemption.”

Admittedly, McCarran-Ferguson is a rather esoteric issue in a complex environment, and "anti-trust" always sounds like it's in the best interests of the public. What the Act does, however, is allow states to regulate insurance companies operating within their jurisdiction rather than bringing it all under federal oversight. The result, however, is to make the insurance products — both life & health and property & casualty — more affordable. Federalizing insurance regulation would, like the initial efforts at "health-care reform" would strengthen the biggest players while harming or even eliminating the smaller companies, and would result in higher costs for consumers, not lower.

As someone who's worked in marketing and advertising in this industry for a long time I know that I have complained on many occasions about the challenges of working with 50 different state insurance commissions in order to get products and even certain advertising approved. While I've often thought it would be simpler to deal with just one entity I also see how state control benefits consumers.

Politicians have long been masters of saying one thing and doing another; of staging a distraction in the park while the pickpocket goes through the crowd. When you hear the music playing, be sure to look over your shoulder.



Wednesday, March 18, 2009

AIG agony

I've read emails that tell how the US government once took over the infamous Mustang Ranch brothel in Nevada because of unpaid taxes...and subsequently managed the business into the ground. The moral of the story was if the government can't even make a go of selling sex and whiskey, how does it expect to be the de facto, nationalized owner of banks and insurance companies?

I don't think about brothels much, but the story keeps coming to me as the AIG saga staggers through the never-ending news cycle as the company's executives and new congressional overseers compete to kill the company in the most Darwin-award winning manner. The current bonus brouhaha may merely be the arsenic icing on a cake made with too many cooks. First, it is incredibly dunder-headed to pay bonuses for behavior that put your company — and the economy — into a tailspin. I work in this industry and regardless of what the contracts say, I've not heard of bonuses being paid for screwing up. I do know that the financial services industry is as brand-conscious (if not more-so) as any industry out there and this kind of publicity is like shooting both of your feet off. You could even speculate whether the company would come out ahead in the long run by refusing to pay the bonuses and fighting it out in court even if the eventually had to fulfill the contracts. The perception that they were trying to do the right thing could have been worth hundreds of millions alone — and avoided a congressional coup-de-grace.

Now Congress is shocked — shocked — that gambling is going on, even though it wrote the rules years ago that led AIG into this thicket, then steadfastly refused to do anything to provide oversight, and finally wrote the specific codicil in the bail-out (thank you, Sen. Dodd) that requires companies that take bail-out money to pay scheduled bonuses. Now, to divert the possibility that any blame might come back on them, they're stomping about, beating their paper-thin chests about the evil and greedy company misusing a small fraction of the billion-dollar suppository of tax-payer dollars Congress shoved up you-know-where — apparently forgetting that the U.S. taxpayer now owns that company and this grandstanding is driving the stock-price down to penny-stock status.

What Congress is also forgetting, as it threatens ever-more-onerous regulations, is that the market — thank you very much — has already exacted its sanctions. (Not only in terms of stock-price and public perception; my company has already benefited by AIG's stumbles as both customers and top producers have come over to us).

On top of that, what message does it send to PTSD investor community when the government starts threatening confiscatory taxes based on feelings rather than the rule of law? AIG operated on the assumption that it was "too big to fail" but after the last week I'm beginning to think everyone connected with this circus is too stupid to live.


Update:

When I wrote "too stupid to live" up above I didn't mean it in a "take them out and shoot them" way, but in the extinct Dodo bird way.

I wanted to be clear about that.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Coming home

A convicted would-be bomber and accessory to murder and armed robbery has been paroled from prison in California and is returning to Minnesota.

That may be "so what?" news for folks not from around here but it has been quite a story in Minnesota since 1999 when Kathleen Soliah (now known as Sara Jane Olson), one of the FBI's "most wanted", was found living a politically progressive, upper-middle class life in a toney St. Paul neighborhood. Soliah/Olson, a sympathizer and possible member of the Symbionese Liberation Army (of Patty Hearst fame) in the 70s had disappeared 23 years prior to her arrest following her grand jury indictment for her role in a bank robbery that resulted in the killing of a female bank customer and for participating in two attempts to bomb police cars in retaliation for a police shoot-out that killed many of her SLA friends. During the time she was "missing", she adopted her new identity, married a St. Paul physician, raised a family, performed in several community theater productions and became well-known in activist circles for her support various liberal causes.

Her friends in turn took up her cause after her arrest, with well-known St. Paul office-holders Andy Dawkins and Sandy Pappas especially front and center protesting that she had lived a good life in the intervening years while also introducing the novel "everyone was an anarchist bomb-thrower in those days anyway" defense. Olson, nee Soliah, for her part pretty much denied anything other than being an admirer of the SLA. A lot of people, or at least the media, seemed to be buying it, too but a couple of things happened. One, the government started releasing more details of its case against her. The second thing was 9/11.

Any indulgence or sympathy for youthful, terroristic activities began to dry up, and Olson ultimately accepted (then tried to renege on) a plea bargain on the charges of planting bombs under two California police cars. After she started serving her sentence she was also convicted of the accessory to murder charge, and seven years were added to run concurrently with her original 14-year sentence, to be served in California. A year ago she was just about to be paroled a year early due to a clerical error but this was discovered and corrected and she returned prison. The calendar has now turned, but in the days leading up to her release the respective police unions in California and Minnesota, as well as the governors of the two states, have each insisted that they didn't want her serving her parole anywhere near them. The public statements became a political side-show in a time when there are some real issues to be dealt with. Nevertheless, Kathleen Soliah/Sara Jane Olson is back in Minnesota after serving seven years of her sentence, with three years of parole to come.

Personally, I think I'm ready to call it square.

I didn't sympathize with her story when she was finally captured and I didn't appreciate the local DFL's embrace of her and their attempts to minimize the serious offenses she committed. Nor do I downplay the seriousness of her intent and participation back in the day, or discount that her actions contributed to the death of another mother who will never come home. I was satisfied, however, to see her ultimately convicted and for the political and moral equivalency smokescreens to get hosed down. I also appreciated it when the amount of time she served turned out to be greater than the "two, three years, tops" predicted by the experts at the time she plead.

The fact is, she has done a significant amount of time and absorbed a (justified) amount of public humiliation. Points have been made. Frankly, I don't feel our community is a more dangerous place with her in it, and I don't expect a wave of police bombings or bank robberies even though some of her comments during her trial and incarceration suggest that she still harbors more than a little resentment against "The Man".

The possibility exists that she might become a public figure again due to her infamy, but outside of a small, hard-core group of supporters I don't think she has the credibility or gravitas to be anything better than a distraction at best — and a liability at worst — for any cause or campaign she aligns with.

If she wants to come back here, be with her family, and live a quiet, invisible life, I'm fine with that and I don't have any interest in following her around and I hope she will be left in peace. If she desires a more public platform then the abuse that will likely be heaped on her — as with the time she spent incarcerated — will be something she brought on herself.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Hello, Americans — and good-bye to a legend

Bob Greene is a master, and writer who's style influenced my early days. He's done a number of tributes over the years, but none have been better than the one he just offered to Paul Harvey who passed away Saturday at the age of 90:

I've never been one to attend the performances of symphony orchestras, but off and on, for more than 35 years, I gave myself the gift of something even better:

I would go and sit with Paul Harvey as he broadcast his radio show.

It was music; it was thrilling. I met him in the early 1970s, when I was a young newspaper reporter in Chicago, and that's when he allowed me, for the first time, to sit silently in his studio as he did his work. Over the years, whenever I felt a need for a Paul Harvey fix, he was always welcoming, and we came to know each other well. I would sit there wordlessly and observe absolute excellence.

He would invariably be wearing a smock when I arrived -- he had been working since well before the sun came up, and the smock would cover his shirt and tie. It was the kind of smock a jeweler might wear, or a watchmaker -- it was crisply pressed, the uniform of an expert craftsman. I never asked him why he wore it, but I suspect that was the reason -- pride in craftsmanship.

He would be at the typewriter, honing his script. He was famed for his voice, but the writing itself was so beautiful -- his respect for words, his understanding of the potency of economy, his instinct for removing the superfluous. The world heard him speak, but the world never saw him write, and I think he honored both aspects of his skill equally.
...
And then the signal from the booth, and. . .

"Hello, Americans! This is Paul Harvey! Stand by. . . for news!"

And he would look down at those words that had come out of his typewriter minutes before -- some of them underlined to remind him to punch them hard -- and they became something grander than ink on paper, they became the song, the Paul Harvey symphony. He would allow me to sit right with him in the little room -- he never made me watch from behind the glass -- and there were moments, when his phrases, his word choices, were so perfect -- flawlessly written, flawlessly delivered -- that I just wanted to stand up and cheer.

But of course I never did any such thing -- in Paul Harvey's studio, if you felt a tickle in your throat you would begin to panic, because you knew that if you so much as coughed it would go out over the air into cities and towns all across the continent -- so there were never any cheers. The impulse was always there, though -- when he would drop one of those famous Paul Harvey pauses into the middle of a sentence, letting it linger, proving once again the power of pure silence, the tease of anticipation, you just wanted to applaud for his mastery of his life's work.

He probably wouldn't have thought of himself this way, but he was the ultimate singer-songwriter. He wrote the lyrics. And then he went onto his stage and performed them. The cadences that came out of his fingertips at the typewriter were designed to be translated by one voice -- his voice -- and he did it every working day for more than half a century: did it so well that he became a part of the very atmosphere, an element of the American air.

Read the whole thing to get the "rest of the story" about an American legend. Good day!

Sunday, February 22, 2009

If it displease the Court

The Chief Justice of the Minnesota Supreme Court, The Hon. Eric Magnuson, is unhappy that the man who appointed him to office, Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty, has asked him to cut his budget by five percent. To do so, the judge and the StarTribune allege, "could leave our courts in chaos." Apparently the Chief Justice sees that the only way he can accommodate such a draconian request in a state facing a $6 billion budget deficit, is by

shutting down conciliation court, cutting hours and suspending prosecution of 21 types of cases, including property damage, harassment, probate, and more than 1 million traffic and parking cases a year.

That last step could interrupt a $200 million flow to local governments.

It appears that a $103 million budget, and a system that brings in $200 million in fines and court fees to the State, can't absorb a five percent cut without dramatically reducing services in the most painful and attention-getting manner. Similarly, school districts always threaten to cut the most visible programs (or withdraw services, such as busing, that will create the biggest headaches for parents) if they don't get everything they feel they are entitled to, and St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman threatens to take cops and firefighters off the street to balance his budget while while preserving redundant and less visible departments.

Very well. Since the Chief Justice favors the rule of law, let's present the case and all the evidence. Where does the present budget go, and just how efficiently? The judiciary is a public service, fully-funded by public dollars, so show the public line-by-line where the money goes and why, and tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth then let a jury of the citizens of this state decide.

Furthermore, if the judge wants to try the case in the media, then the Star Tribune ought to at least make an effort to find some opposing witnesses or at least make an attempt to cross-examine the testimony. Calling only DFL House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and DFL rep Michael Paymar to the stand suggests an agenda rather than a search for truth.

Here's a fact: the State of Minnesota has a humongous deficit. Cuts are going to have to be made. If the Judiciary is spared, the burden must pass to another branch of government. Will we next week see the trash collectors saying they'll only be able to collect every other week, or the dog-catchers saying they'll no longer be able to afford to round up rabid dogs?

In my private-sector job, our business was recently forced to reduce expenses by nearly as many dollars as Magnuson has been asked to cut, on a budget only a fifth the size of the judge's. Our mandate, however, was to make the cuts as invisible as possible to customers and to not reduce service to the consumers who are our lifeblood. Ironically, our "public servants" always seem to resort to doing just the opposite for their "customers".

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Adjusted for inflation

"A million trillion here, a million trillion there; pretty soon you’re talking about real money."
— Everett Dirksen

$2 TRILLION?
White House's $2.5 trillion plan draws criticism over lack of details.


By EDMUND L. ANDREWS and STEPHEN LABATON, New York Times

WASHINGTON - The White House plan to rescue the nation's financial system, announced Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, is far bigger than anyone predicted and envisions a far greater government role in markets and banks than at any time since the 1930s.

Administration officials committed to flood the financial system with as much as $2.5 trillion -- $350 billion of that coming from the bailout fund and the rest from private investors and the Federal Reserve, making use of its ability to print money.
...
But the initial assessment from the markets, lawmakers and economists was brutally negative, in large part because they expected more details.

Basic questions about how the various parts of the program would work -- especially those involving the unsellable mortgages that banks are holding and preventing home foreclosures -- were left for another day. Some Wall Street experts criticized the plan for relying too heavily on the same vague solutions proposed by the Bush administration.

The stock market, propped up for weeks on the expectation that Washington would finally deliver a comprehensive rescue plan, dipped almost as soon as Geithner began speaking in the morning.



Sunday, February 8, 2009

A beast of a burden

Megan McArdle writing in The Atlantic...

It seems to me that the burden of proof ought naturally to be on the stimulus proponents to satisfy the public that their highly theoretical models are basically sound, especially for the parts of the bill that aren't tax cuts or transfer payments. Let's recall that the evidence for this kind of stimulus working in this kind of situation basically rests on a single instance (World War II)--the other two times it was tried (Japan in the 1990s and America in the 1930s) the economy basically rolled along in the doldrums for the rest of the decade.

Proponents say that that's because there wasn't enough stimulus, which is possibly true, but not really satisfying, because first, how do we know this package is enough, and second, that leaves us with a belief in the virtues of stimulus that is essentially non-falsifiable. We might as well move macroeconomic policy to the Office of Faith-Based Initiatives.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Atlas shrugged, and smiled a knowing smile

I was talking to my sister-in-law the other day and she said her husband, who's been at his job for more than 20 years, has been bumped back to the night shift by someone with even more seniority. "I'm trying to keep a good attitude about it," she said, "because, after all, at least it's a job."

"You're right," I replied. "Jobs are important; only 9 out of 10 Americans have one."

All right, I can be an incorrigible smart ass, especially around family, and that's a trait that has barely mellowed over the years. Even I'll acknowledge, however, the gathering economic storm building overhead as if the country were one large trailer park. My sense is that things are going to get worse before they get better and that this is no mere hiccup but more like a full-on bulimic purge. To keep mixing my metaphors, Dylan once said "You don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows," and my "forecast" doesn't require a special degree or even a Doppler. In fact, if you'd spent time in college reading "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand you could probably do the same. As the current winds increase it might be interesting, if not all that helpful at this point, to head for the basement with a copy of her book.

Stephen Moore made a similar point last week in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled "Atlas Shrugged: From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years". In it he points out frightening prescience of this all-time classic.

For the uninitiated, the moral of the story is simply this: Politicians invariably respond to crises — that in most cases they themselves created — by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism.

In the book, these relentless wealth redistributionists and their programs are disparaged as "the looters and their laws." Every new act of government futility and stupidity carries with it a benevolent-sounding title. These include the "Anti-Greed Act" to redistribute income (sounds like Charlie Rangel's promises soak-the-rich tax bill) and the "Equalization of Opportunity Act" to prevent people from starting more than one business (to give other people a chance). My personal favorite, the "Anti Dog-Eat-Dog Act," aims to restrict cut-throat competition between firms and thus slow the wave of business bankruptcies. Why didn't Hank Paulson think of that?

These acts and edicts sound farcical, yes, but no more so than the actual events in Washington, circa 2008. We already have been served up the $700 billion "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act" and the "Auto Industry Financing and Restructuring Act." Now that Barack Obama is in town, he will soon sign into law with great urgency the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan." This latest Hail Mary pass will increase the federal budget (which has already expanded by $1.5 trillion in eight years under George Bush) by an additional $1 trillion — in roughly his first 100 days in office.

The current economic strategy is right out of "Atlas Shrugged": The more incompetent you are in business, the more handouts the politicians will bestow on you. That's the justification for the $2 trillion of subsidies doled out already to keep afloat distressed insurance companies, banks, Wall Street investment houses, and auto companies — while standing next in line for their share of the booty are real-estate developers, the steel industry, chemical companies, airlines, ethanol producers, construction firms and even catfish farmers. With each successive bailout to "calm the markets," another trillion of national wealth is subsequently lost. Yet, as "Atlas" grimly foretold, we now treat the incompetent who wreck their companies as victims, while those resourceful business owners who manage to make a profit are portrayed as recipients of illegitimate "windfalls."

I've been thinking about re-reading the book, especially since I'm sure I'll understand it a lot more than I did 30-some years ago, but I'm concerned that I'll get too angry (again) over the treatment of the individual in the story ... and by the creeping sense that there's nothing one can do to keep it from happening in real life. Of course, in the book, one man — the right man — can make a difference.

Ultimately, "Atlas Shrugged" is a celebration of the entrepreneur, the risk taker and the cultivator of wealth through human intellect. Critics dismissed the novel as simple-minded, and even some of Rand's political admirers complained that she lacked compassion. Yet one pertinent warning resounds throughout the book: When profits and wealth and creativity are denigrated in society, they start to disappear — leaving everyone the poorer.

One memorable moment in "Atlas" occurs near the very end, when the economy has been rendered comatose by all the great economic minds in Washington. Finally, and out of desperation, the politicians come to the heroic businessman John Galt (who has resisted their assault on capitalism) and beg him to help them get the economy back on track. The discussion sounds much like what would happen today:

Galt: "You want me to be Economic Dictator?"

Mr. Thompson: "Yes!"

"And you'll obey any order I give?"

"Implicitly!"

"Then start by abolishing all income taxes."

"Oh no!" screamed Mr. Thompson, leaping to his feet. "We couldn't do that . . . How would we pay government employees?"

"Fire your government employees."

"Oh, no!"

Abolishing the income tax. Now that really would be a genuine economic stimulus. But Mr. Obama and the Democrats in Washington want to do the opposite: to raise the income tax "for purposes of fairness" as Barack Obama puts it.

David Kelley, the president of the Atlas Society, which is dedicated to promoting Rand's ideas, explains that "the older the book gets, the more timely its message." He tells me that there are plans to make "Atlas Shrugged" into a major motion picture [A younger Glenn Close would make a dynamite Dagny Taggart, IMHO. NW.] — it is the only classic novel of recent decades that was never made into a movie. "We don't need to make a movie out of the book," Mr. Kelley jokes. "We are living it right now."


Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Return to Sderot

The latest situation in Gaza reminded me of a post by Yaacov Ben Moshe from Breath of the Beast entitled Welcome to Sderot that I wrote about back in June. In it he described the constant, dripping, pressure of Hamas attacks on Israeli villages in range of rockets launched from Gaza, and how both Hamas and the Israeli government appeared to use a macabre calculus on how much violence could be tolerated. At the time I compared this to the grim irony of the West being willing "to trade blood for peace, to cut off fingers and feed them to dogs under the table so as not to upset the place-settings."

As it now appears that the Israeli government has decided enough is enough, and is prepared to shrug off the ignorant pressure of "world opinion" in the same way they have been shrugging off the random missile attacks, it is worth revisting Yaacov's penetrating essay:

Sderot is an Israeli town within range of Hamas rockets and the victim of the leadership policies of both the Israeli government and that of Hamas that requires a macabre calculus of acceptable losses that keeps both groups of leaders in power ... while killing Jewish civilians. Hamas knows that launching rockets on a slow but steady basis, but killing only a few at a time will maintain its political power base with the jihadis, satisfy its foreign sponsors, while not seriously exposing itself to all out countermeasures from Israel.

Simultaneously, Israel's government tacitly accepts a handful of deaths as being below the threshold of requiring dramatic and deadly response, knowing that it will be pilloried by foreign public opinion and seen as the aggressor if it does so. Ben Moshe cites JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs) Report 781:

“For Hamas, the key is to keep the rocket attacks below an understood threshold and Israel's response will be tolerable, precise and produce minimal collateral (Palestinian) damage. The Hamas pattern is to fire one, two or three rockets at Sderot. Wait a few days and do it again. Injure two, three, four Israelis. Kill one or two, but not more than that - this week. Increase the range and accuracy of the rockets incrementally. Hit Ashkelon, but just once. Then wait. Hit a shopping center, but if no one is killed, the Israeli response is unlikely to threaten Hamas rule. If Israel does retaliate, the world will probably be more annoyed by the "disproportionate response" than the original rocket attack.”

As I was reading, though, something was bothering me. I was still stuck on the seemingly more limited issue of the terror involved. Who are these people who are being killed by the rockets? How do they live knowing that, only if some, unspecified number of them of them are killed and maimed, will their government be moved to do something about the terror under which they live? This dangerous and painful situation is only partially a product of the Arab/Islamist dream of annihilation of Israel. It is made possible by a combination of ruthless internal enemies (e.g. the far left peace movement), clueless dupes (e.g. Olmert, Livni, et al) and shortsighted erstwhile foreign “friends” who do not understand the reality of the threat. This motley assortment of fools and instigators hold Israel’s defense establishment, her regard for her own citizens and, indeed, her very moral, civic, ethical and intellectual integrity hostage.

...

The people of Sderot listen for the sirens all day and all night 365 days a year and all must wonder if today is the day that a rocket will come through the ceiling in a busy dining hall or a kindergarten classroom or a high school auditorium and finally be “enough” to force the government to use the power it has always had- but may not always retain- to eliminate the threat. They wait for the government to act. They pray for the rest of the world to recoil in horror. They face each day with bravery and hope. Just like the people in Jackson’s story, they are hostages.

...

Do you believe that it is about The Nakba or The Occupation or The Settlements? Do you allow yourself the fantasy that there is a way to stop the madness- a sacrifice big enough to satisfy this ravenous cult?

Then what did the innocent victims die for on 9/11- or Madrid- or London- the Darfur? This is part of the same grotesque lottery that has been going on for 1500 years. In spite of the sacrifice of the innocent victims of 9/11, it is all too easy for us to deny that we are hostages too, but those “zero beings” from the Islamist void will not be happy to delete only Israel. They have "selected" them for annihilation first but it is nothing personal, you understand, just a sacrifice to prove there is no value to human life. There is no value to anything that does not affirm the spiritual vacuum of Islamism. It is not because they worship Allah, nor is it is that they believe Mohammed was a prophet. It is that they believe that he was the only prophet, that they know the absolute truth and that it is their mission to ignore (and destroy) all evidence to the contrary. If you believe in life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, they will not rest until they destroy you too.

The Jihadists are not interested in cease-fires or peace. They are happy to tell you what they want. They want the world to live under Shari’a law. They believe that anyone that doesn’t want that is sub-human and deserves to be killed. This is nothing less than another confrontation with the evil of fascist, totalitarianism, and that is a beast whose hunger cannot be sated with souls, nor can its thirst be slaked with blood. The lottery they are holding is to determine not if you will be destroyed but when you will be destroyed. We are all citizens of Sderot — its just that most of us don’t know it yet.




Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Truth in advertising

From JB over at Fraters Libertas:

Friday, September 26, 2008

Another stink in the public schools?

Last week a Blaine high school student was suspended from school for 10 days for having a box-cutter, in his car, in the parking lot, while he was inside the school. A couple of weeks ago my nephew — a high-school junior who had been private-schooled or home-schooled throughout his academic career — was also suspended on his second day of public school for having a pocketknife in his pocket (upon his return the administration also confiscated his wallet-chain).

I won't go for the easy comment about "zero-tolerance" policies in institutions that otherwise chant "tolerance" and "diversity" as sacraments (if you can even bring a sacrament into a school parking lot, that is). Lileks, in fact, has already done this to a turn.

No, what I'm concerned about is another headline I just saw:

Man accused of passing gas is charged with battery

If farting is now considered assault, the schools will have no choice but to enforce their "expulsion" policies!


Thursday, September 4, 2008

Police Chief Marlin Perkins...

The Strib story detailing the post-concert exploits of Rage Against the Machine fans and the Minneapolis police included this phrase:

87 people were brought in, tagged and released...

I couldn't help but get a picture in my head of some wild child being hit with a tranquilizer dart, taken down in the street and then a police officer named Jim affixing a tracking tag to a part of the dude's body not already obscured with tattoos and piercings, then moving off to a safe distance as the kid staggers back to rejoin the herd. The tag, of course, would be in the hopes of future arresting officers calling in to report the location of the bust, providing important scientific data about the migratory patterns of this species.

Perhaps I watched too much of Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom when I was a kid.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Going for a new record -- perhaps a criminal one

Every four years, people who have been dedicating months, even years of their life in preparation come together in front of the TV cameras to live their dream in front of a world-wide audience. Of course I'm not referring to the Olympics but to protesting the presidential conventions. To be fair, there was a Mount Olympus feel to Sen. Obama's dais during the DNC, while the poo and urine-flinging anarchists in the streets of St. Paul for the RNC suggest that a rerouting of the Mississippi River through downtown, alá Hercules' method for cleaning the Augean Stables, might be necessary. While there were a lot of different costumes seen among the protesters, I don't remember any togas though.

The protesters and anarchists weren't the only ones who were busy preparing for their time in the spotlight, however. The authorities were also at work with plans of their own, and launched preemptive raids (with search warrants) on known anarchist hang-outs Sunday night before the convention started, capturing bolt cutters, sling shots, six throwing-style knives, smoke bombs, machetes, caltrops (for disabling tires and vehicles) and other devices for blocking traffic or damaging property. It was also reported that several buckets of urine were also confiscated, no doubt for testing to see if the wild ones had been taking steroids in preparation for their protests. A lot of buttons and propaganda were also taken into custody, and the pro bono lawyers who came to town with the protesters were in court Tuesday, demanding the return of all materials. District Judge Kathleen Gearin, however, denied an emergency motion brought by the plaintiffs to have some of the items seized by police returned to them.

"Who should we return the urine to?" Gearin asked.

I think it's only fair that the buckets be returned full, and with triple damages.

Oh well, God love 'em, I can tolerate and only shake my head in amusement at most of the fey activists. The protests so far have generally been non-violent and even kind of amusing in a precocious way with strange dancing, crude (in craftsmanship and language) signs and trite slogans that perhaps suggest what the TV writers were doing last year in their spare time while they were on strike. At least these folks were willing to show their faces and even to be arrested.

Some, however, dressed oh-so-chic in black garb, masks and hoods, came with the intention of doing property damage, busting windows in a police car and running away; bashing in several storefront windows and running away; one even took a run at cop trying to drag a protester away, knocking the officer down and then running away. These true believers, of course, had to keep their faces covered so that "the Man" couldn't identify them because, you know, civilized cultures have things like "laws" and consequences, which really frosts the anarchists. At least there's a precedent in America for people hooding their faces while committing acts of terror in the name of some hateful cause. Before, though, those hoods were white.


(Photo from WCCO slideshow.)



Update:

Related News Stories:
Anatomy of anarchy: Militant protestors meet police on St. Paul streets
Anarchists damage property, block traffic, attack delegates with bleach
St. Paul protest play out on streets, online

Monday, September 1, 2008

I just got back from the 20th century...

Our internet service crashed Sunday morning and we were disconnected until mid-afternoon today due to a server problem in our area (and fortunately nothing expensive that we have to fix with our home set-up). It's not like being chased out of your home by a hurricane or, say, having to pee in a bucket like some of the visitors to my city apparently chose to do over the weekend, but it was kind of surprising at how much the internet has entwined itself in our lives.

At any given time on a weekend we're likely to have two laptops going and sometimes three, all connected to the 'Net. It's a handy way to look up a phone number, get directions to some place, reserve a tee-time or knock off a quick game of Web Sudoku while waiting for the charcoal to heat up. At least I didn't miss it so much on Sunday ... until I tried to find the results of the Twins' game! I had to revert to the near-medieval practice of watching the ESPN crawler at the bottom of the high-def TV screen. Gadzooks! I also had an on-line coupon ($35 off!) that I couldn't get to in my e-mail inbox that needed to be printed out and used by today; I went over to my brother-in-law's and used his computer to do the deed.

Today it became a little more stressful. My wife is a police chaplain and is helping out at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul. With the RNC changing plans on the fly to cope with Hurricane Gustav, she was concerned that she was missing any emails up-dating or re-assigning her to a different location. Nothing a couple of phone calls couldn't resolve, and she was able to show up for an interesting afternoon of supporting our local officers. Her group did such a good job today that they were asked to expand their role in order to support another group of officers as well.

She'll likely have a report and perhaps some photos of her experiences after the event is over; for security reasons it's probably best that she not talk too much about where she's at and where the police units are deployed. It has been an interesting couple of weeks of training and orientation for the chaplains. A special "secret location" in downtown St.Paul was set aside for them and I got to see it for myself when we drove down there Saturday morning to deliver some furniture we and our church were providing to the command post. It was an amazing experience driving through downtown as at every intersection we watched a police cruiser go by. This morning we went to Jerubek's Bakery for breakfast, not far from downtown, and drank coffee and ate our pastry out on the patio, despite the constant thwopping of helicopters overhead. It's going to be an interesting week, but morale appears to be high. I plan to stay as far away from the convention as possible!

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Good night, sweet prince...
...and flights of angels sing thee to thy rest!

Actor Joe Kudla, co-founder and "Snot" half of the Puke & Snot Renaissance Festival comedy team, has passed away in St. Paul at the age of 58.


Puke (Mark Sieve) and Snot (Joe Kudla)


I moved to Minnesota in 1980 and went to my first Renaissance Festival that summer. I didn't know much about it but thought it might be fun; I thought I'd stay for a couple of hours. It turned out to be a blast and I stayed all day, and the highlight was the performances of the sword-fighting, Shakespeare-mangling, carrot-spraying "Pun"-dits, Puke & Snot. I went to the Ren Fest for years, always making it a priority to catch their never-ending quarrel and ripostes — both verbal and of steel.

I haven't gone to a Ren Fest for awhile, however, as I found the event to have become too grungy and not as family-friendly. The grunge may be more "authentic" for the era, but it seems as if the overall commitment to authenticity has devolved. I was actually thinking of the Ren Fest the other day and wondered if Puke & Snot were still plying their craft, and if they had updated their jokes, and if they still fit into their tights.

Thanks for the memories and the laughs, Good Snot!


Update:

Additional details in the Strib article.

Puke has a blog! Check out his tribute to his partner.